Market Insight

Datasets reproduced in partnership with
logo of energy scan

Fri, 16th Feb ’24


  • Markets remain on the slide, with near- and far-term prices drifting southwards.
  • Prices are down on the week/month/quarter/6-months.
  • In short, the bear-trend that began in Q422 is still in place.
  • Temperatures are set to peak circa. 7 degrees above seasonal norms into the weekend.
  • On the bullish side,  wind outputs will drop off circa. 40% today/tomorrow, meaning higher-gas-for-power burn, and potentially increasing the rate of withdrawals.
  • Looking to the wider energy complex, European coal supply is in good shape and carbon remains in the doldrums.
  • With Summer-24 only 45 days away,  only geo-political unrest poses any risk to a continuation of the prevailing bear trend.
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month (so far) to achieve 67p/therm (or circa. 2.25p/kwh).


  • For the first time since 2018, Seasonal Forwards have assumed a contango state (future delivery prices more expensive than near-term delivery prices) – see chart.
  • Looking to the continent, near-term delivery prices dropped again yesterday driven down by weaker fuels and emissions prices along with expectations of slightly higher wind production and nuclear availability.
  • With European gas stocks at an all time high (66% versus the 5-year average of 53%), ongoing Industrial demand destruction and the “solar season” just around the corner with days getting longer, it’s difficult to see where any upward momentum might come from (save geo-political escalations).
  • UKAs (UK carbon allowances) are circa. £38/tonne with a retest of 29th Jan lows of £36/tonne surely very likely if EUAs fall further.
  • Back in the UK, our generation mix is bang-on neutral with renewables contributing 32% and gas-for-power burn at 32%.
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages for UK electricity are on target this month (so far) to achieve £60/mwh (or 6p/kwh).



How can we help?

How can we help?