Market Insight

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Mon, 24th Jun ’24


  • Month-Ahead has sustained sub-100p/therm prices throughout 2024, and is now at near-parity with prices printed in ’21 & ’23 (’22 was significantly higher following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine etc) – see chart.
  • This coming week represents the best opportunity so far for prices to enjoy some decent exposure to summer conditioning (low heating demand/high solar outputs/reasonable wind outputs/high storage/solid injections/low gas-for-power generation).
  • Markets have opened slightly lower than last week’s close off the back of a long system (supply outstripping demand forecast) and warmer than seasonal average temperatures expected to last until at least the weekend.
  • On the supply side, we’re only expecting 1 LNG vessel to arrive at UK shores before the end of June against a backdrop of increased competition with Asia (heatwaves meaning higher cooling demand) and the ongoing outage at the Wheatstone teminal in Australia.
  • Down the curve, Sesonal Forwards are looking neutral to bearish at the time of writing (with Winter-24/Winter-25 now offering below 100p/therm).
  • European storage is at 75% versus the 5-year average of 62%.
  • Norwegian flows to Europe/UK are in and around normal levels.
  • Later in the week, expect higher available capacity from UK domestic production due to the completion of maintenance at Teesside CATS and Barrow.
  • We’re 84 days into Summer-24 (99 days remaining).
  • Overall, expect neutral to bearish price action as the week progresses (assuming we don’t see any geo-political threats to supply stability).
  • Europe remains on track to achieve 100% storage levels by Winter-24 (early Oct ’24).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve 82p/therm (or circa. 2.8p/kwh excluding non-gas).


  • This week, Europe will see a progressive increase of wind generation which is likely to be partly offset by fading solar (after peaking tomorrow) and hydro generation.
  • Down the curve, prices fell to end last week, led once again by the gas market although most participants seem to want to observe a wait-and-see strategy rather than following any particular trend.
  • On the Carbon markets, correlation with the gas market persists, with much of last week’s gains given back.
  • With the European Industrial fundamental picture still depressed (and definitely not improving any time soon), the retracement of emissions prices could accelerate in the upcoming days (even more likely if gas prices fall).
  • The recent COT (Commitment of Traders Report) showed that speculators appear eager to build back their net short position, betting on further downside of prices.
  • The EUA Dec’ 24 benchmark closed the week at 68.13€/t, -1.09€/t from Thursday and -0.15€/t (-0.2%) week-on-week.
  • Back in the UK, UKAs (UK Carbon Allowances) followed our prediction that prices were due to fall as indicated by RSI divergence (see chart) – now trading at £45/tonne.
  • Prices are now in a confirmed ascending trend channel testing the mid-line (see chart) – congestion is building at £40/tn as a strong area of support – so a retest of this level will likely result in a bounce.
  • Our electricity generation mix is neutral in nature today with renewables contributing 28%, thermal at 25% (gas and coal) and low carbon at 30% (nuclear and imports).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve £72/mwh (or 7.2p/kwh excluding non-energy).



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