Market Insight

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Thurs, 25th Apr ’24


  • Markets are rangebound – supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, pressured by high storage and the gradual onset of summer conditioning.
  • For the first time in a fortnight, the UK system opened short this morning (forecasted demand outstripping supply) following weeks of reduced Norwegian flows (with unscheduled outages still ongoing).
  • Storage withdrawals have been on the up today, off the back of below average seasonal temperatures – increasing heating demand amid subdued renewables outputs (and higher gas-for-power burn).
  • We’re unlikely to see temperatures climb back above seasonal norms until 1st May.
  • Prices were marginally up across the board today continuing yesterday’s late rally.
  • Notably, LNG consumption across the world has risen by more than 40bcm (billion cubic metres) since Russia’s invasion in Feb-22 (and the associated reduction in Russian gas flows into Western Europe).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve 72p/therm (or 2.4p/kwh).


  • Looking to the continent, European short-term delivery prices eased yesterday amid anticipation of milder temperatures (although still well below average) and a rebound in wind production, with additional pressure from fading fuels and emissions prices.
  • The emissions and power curve prices continue to mirror gas movements.
  • The energy complex indeed attempted a rebound in the morning but sellers took over the markets in the afternoon and most contracts eventually settled below their previous settlements at the end of a pretty uneventful session.
  • Interestingly, the carbon benchmark contract (Dec’24) displayed a little more resistance to the bullish pressure, which suggests that participants adopted a “wait-and-see” posture ahead of this week’s COT (commitment of traders’s report).
  • In short, it’s sideways price action amid balanced fundamentals.
  • Back in the UK, Dec-24 contracts for UK ETS are circa. £37/tn.
  • Our electricity generation mix is a little bullish in nature today with renewables contributing 21%, thermal at 42% (gas and coal) and low carbon at 25% (nuclear and imports).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve £50/mwh (or 5p/kwh).



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