Market Insight

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Tues, 23rd Apr ’24


  • As predicted toward the end of last week, prices are unwinding off the back of reduced posturing between Israel and Iran.
  • Both near- and far-term delivery contracts are down amid renewed confidence that Europe has ample storage fullness to withstand the rigours of geopolitical disquiet and the remnants of winter temperatures.
  • Despite cold temperatures last week, European inventories are still over 60% versus the 5-year average of 40%.
  • Following over a week of almost zero outputs, Freeport LNG’s production is now on the up – though still nowhere near normal levels.
  • Thankfully, Saturday saw the first arrival at Freeport for 11 days of an LNG vessel docking for liquefaction.
  • Whilst Norwegian flows are back near capacity following extended unscheduled maintenance over the past few weeks, several scheduled outages remain on the docket across Norwegian production fields – with the heavier impacts starting tomorrow.
  • Due to recent high demand (amid the cold spell), withdrawals from MRS (mid-range storage) will be needed this week – though LNG sendout is expected to ramp-up beginning today.
  • In short, whilst geopolitical tensions have subsided, fundamental key drivers are a little bullish today with forecasts looking chilly and Norwegian maintenances set to cause some tightness on the supply side.
  • The 15-day forecast is detailing colder temperatures from 23rd to 27th April.
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve 72p/therm (or 2.4p/kwh).


  • Looking to the continent, European short-term delivery prices stayed bullish yesterday amid cold temperatures and anticipated shortage of wind outputs.
  • Prices may ease today as weather forecasts suggest a slight increase in temperatures and improved renewables outputs.
  • Carbon fell back yesterday, driven down by softening gas prices amid fading hysteria over Middle East sabre-rattling.
  • The bearish signal from the gas market is likely pushing speculators in the EU ETS to build back short positions – so expect more of the same so long as the heat stays out of gas contracts.
  • On the weather side, whilst the cold spell is offering support to prompt (near-term delivery) electricity prices, warmer temperatures combined with stronger solar generation are being forecast for next week – which will weigh on the energy complex and fuel the downtrend in Forward prices.
  • Back in the UK, Dec-24 contracts for UK ETS are circa. £36/tn.
  • Our electricity generation mix is a little bullish in nature today with renewables contributing 23%, thermal at 35% (gas and coal) and low carbon at 26% (nuclear and imports).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve £51/mwh (or 5.1p/kwh).



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