Market Insight

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Tues, 30th Apr ’24


  • Despite temperatures rising as the week progresses (and demand falling), prices were marginally higher at this morning’s open – most likely off the back of renewed buying interest given recent drops in price.
  • Forecast demand into next week is slightly higher based on temperature drops below seasonal norms.
  • Feedgas into Freeport LNG (Texas) is gradually ramping up with Train 1 back online – offering a welcome boost to European LNG supplies (Train 2 has also been restarted – so just Train 3 remains offline).
  • As such, it’s likely the plant’s flows will rise steeply and and back to levels not seen for the last few weeks.
  • Norwegian flows into Europe/UK remain disrupted (and below the 5-day moving average) with major plants still subject to maintenance.
  • Nonetheless, European MRS (storage fullness) remains at historical highs – 62% versus the 5-year average of 46%.
  • There are only two LNG arrivals expected into UK ports to degasify at South Hook in the next two weeks (with “Energy Pacific” expected tomorrow from America).
  • Geopolitically, there’s very little noise out of the Middle East – be it news of escalation or peace negotiations – as such, risk of another flare up will continue to offer price support.
  • All in all, a mixed bag – hence the sideways price action.
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages for April achieved 72p/therm (or 2.45p/kwh).


  • As you’d expect with the onset of summer conditioning, both Season-Ahead and 2-Seasons-Ahead are very gradually dropping off in-line with seasonal demand (see chart).
  • Looking to the continent, near-term delivery prices are softening due to warmer weather conditions.
  • Those warm conditions should persist over Europe, leading to lower power demand, while both wind and solar generation are expected to ramp up.
  • Another bearish driver is the decline in coal prices (reducing the cost of thermal generation) –  API2  is now trading below $110/tn (Rotterdam Futures).
  • Higher temperatures across Europe should continue to pressure the fuel basket but news on the gas market and possible bottlenecks in the supply outlook still lend lingering support – despite the onset of summer conditioning.
  • On Carbon markets, the benchmark EUAs (European EU-ETS) Dec-24 benchmark contracts fell yesterday and broke below the 20-day moving average support level.
  • Holding or losing this support will be key over the coming days.
  • The fundamental picture remains bearish: low emissions from thermal power generators and lower production expected from energy-intensive industrials throughout May.
  • Back in the UK, Dec-24 contracts for UK ETS are circa. £35/tn.
  • Our electricity generation mix is very bearish in nature today with renewables contributing 56%, thermal at 7% (gas and coal) and low carbon at 27% (nuclear and imports).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages for April achieved £52/mwh (or 5.2p/kwh).



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