Market Insight

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Tues, 9th Jan ’24


  • Flying in the face of historical precedent, markets continue to correct as we head deeper into Winter ’23 – a reflection surely that gas values were significantly overcooked during the energy crisis of ’21 & ’22.
  • See chart below detailing Month-Ahead prices for ’21/’22/’23.
  • Prices opened lower again this morning, and remain marginally down versus yesterday’s close at the time of writing.
  • Overnight, mid-term weather forecasts have flip-flopped again, making way for more downside – with lower temperatures now forecast as late as early February.
  • The supply-demand dynamic remains favourable with Norwegian flows at capacity, LNG arrivals on the up, historically high storage levels (notwithstanding withdrawals in Europe).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve 82p/therm (or 2.8p/kwh).


  • Looking to the continent, a milder and windier revision of weather forecasts triggered a fall in near- and far-term delivery prices yesterday, especially on the front months.
  • Historically high gas and hydro storage levels, solid gas and nuclear availability against a backdrop of still structurally weak demand is keeping the pressure on prompt rates.
  • On the regulation side, the French government unveiled draft bill targeting a nuclear availability rate of 75% from 2030, with the goal of maintaining a nuclear fleet of at least 63GW.
  • Carbon followed gas prices down, with investors likely fueling the aggressive sell-off as well in an attempt to build back a strong net short position (while likely eyeing the auction resumption scheduled for 15th Jan ’24).
  • Back in the UK, Seasonal Forwards are down on the Day/Week/Month (see chart).
  • Monthly Day-Ahead averages are on target this month to achieve £77/mwh (or 7.7p/kwh).



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